Long Tao: Bīng Zhēng (Military Campaigns)

King Wu asked tai gong:
"How can I discern the enemy’s strength or weakness before battle and foresee signs of victory or defeat?"

tai gong replied:
"Signs of victory or defeat first manifest in the enemy’s spirit. A wise commander perceives these omens, but their exploitation depends on human effort. Observe the enemy’s movements, their troops’ morale, and the rumors they spread.

If the army is joyous, respects orders, fears discipline, celebrates courage, and boasts of valor, it is strong. If the troops are restless, disorganized, fearful of the enemy’s might, spreading panic, ignoring commands, and doubting their leaders, it is weak.

When formations are solid, trenches deep, and battlements high—aided by favorable winds and rain—flags surge forward unbidden, golden bells ring clear, and war drums resound brightly, this signals divine aid and imminent triumph.

When formations crumble, banners scatter in adverse weather, soldiers tremble, horses bolt, chariots break, bells drone dully, and drums sound muffled, this foretells catastrophic defeat.

When besieging a city:

• Ashen energy above the city means it will fall.

• Energy flowing northward means it can be taken.

• Energy flowing westward hints at surrender.

• Energy flowing southward signals unbreakable defense.

• Energy flowing eastward warns against attack.

• Energy surging and retreating means the commander will flee.

• Energy enveloping your camp brings misfortune.

• Energy rising endlessly prolongs the siege.

If thunder and rain fail within ten days of encircling a city, withdraw swiftly—it is aided by wise counsel. Thus, act when conditions favor attack; hold when they do not."

King Wu said:
"Excellent!"